After Assad: The Hopeful Global Scenario

Benjamin Netanyahu is a much-despised man in many corners of the world. That is a fact of contemporary life, irrespective of the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court.

On the verge of something big

And yet, the Israeli Prime Minister is also a very lucky man. Netanyahu is quite possibly on the verge of realizing what has always been his personal vision, as far-fetched as it seemed to most outsiders for the longest time.

The first indication of what has been a foot for a while became visible when — despite all the protests in Israel, in Palestine and parts of the “Arab Street” — most Sunni rulers in the Middle East were notably rather quiet in protesting Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

They were quietly hoping that Israel’s military — with its impressive combination of military courage and determination, immense technical precision, as well as imaginative and truly transformative intelligence actions — might somehow trigger a sequence of events that would ultimately root out the Iran-sponsored cancer from the Middle East.

Erdogan as a player

We are not quite there yet, but the well-prepared, Erdogan-sponsored rapid collapse of the Assad regime could very well be the decisive step to reshape the Middle East.

One must certainly hope so. While the toppling of a long-term despotic regime has led to further unraveling in countries such as Iraq, Libya and Yemen, there is one big source of hope for Syria.

The country has a sizable part of society that is traditionally civic-minded and, importantly, secular in its outlook. A significant share of Syrians also has very solid professional skills.

Which is why one must hope that smart minds inside and outside the country will see to it that it will avoid the fate of becoming a failed state. That risk is certainly there so the overarching goal must be to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria and hope that equitable solutions to the various sources of strife will be found. Most Arab leaders have a very direct interest in such an outcome.

Putin losing his shirt in Syria

The toppling of the Assad regime also underscores that Putin’s Russia is a giant only in its own mind, but even there definitely one with clay feet. If all goes well, Russia will lose its military points in the Mediterranean.

One more countermove to further enfeeble Putin will come at the hands of the Saudis. They will likely use their capacity to easily ramp up oil production in a very cost-effective manner to flood the markets. That action will temporarily drive down the price of oil.

Given this quite likely scenario, Russia — which is extremely dependent on selling oil at as high a price as possible — must be extremely nervous about its ability to uphold its economic house of cards.

The multiple-level Donald Trump factor

What about Donald Trump in all of this? Several points come to mind. Of course, he is widely detested as a brute in much of Europe. Not that the sentiment prevailing there would disturb him much.

Trump would love to have the Europeans eat their constant belittling of him. How to make that happen? His relationship with the Saudis, once again widely regarded as a matter of extreme detestation in Europe, may be paying off very handsomely for the entire West.

After all, the Saudis’ move to depress the oil price, if indeed it materializes, hollows out Russia’s long-term ability to keep fighting in Ukraine. A Trump-sponsored or even Trump-imposed deal on Ukraine that is quite hard on Russia may well be on the cards.

What is Trump’s ultimate motivation to achieve that? To be sure, he is not much of a peacenik or diplomat.

Settling scores in unexpected fashion

But Donald Trump is certainly a very vain man. And one who likes to settle scores in unexpected fashion.

The first factor that looms large on Trump’s mind in this context is that Barack Obama, in his first year in office back in 2009, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize — even though he hadn’t really done anything to deserve it at that stage.

Count on Trump aiming for his own Nobel Peace Prize. There are a few things he would relish more. Why? Because it would demonstrate his ability to trump all his opponents in the democratic countries of the world.

The history books are looming…

The second factor on his mind is that Trump wants to get into the history books not as a buffoon, but with a very favorable mention. Nothing better to achieve that than settling the score between Russia and Ukraine in a manner that puts a lot of pressure onto Putin.

The third factor on Trump’s mind, as everyone can safely assume, is that, as he himself would be the first to acknowledge, he hates losers.

As strong as the desperado alliance of Russia, Iran, North Korea and China may have looked for some time at least to the uninitiated, its power is waning. Aside from their national weak economies, the rollup in the Middle East that was initiated by Netanyahu is a big factor in all of that.

What’s more, looking back at his first term, it is reasonable to assume that Trump must feel frustrated about the North Korean leader.

Trump’s impeccable logic: No condos in Russia, no like Putin

And, unlike in his first term when he had hopes that his family clan would get building permits for big hotels, condos and other projects in Russia, that is no longer in the cards given Western sanctions.

In that sense, other than some kompromat material, Putin has lost the main drawing card available to him to make Trump docile and kowtow to the Russian dictator.

The axis of desperados

Iran looks like a teetering regime as well. Plus, the way Trump functions, in view of the octogenarian religious dictators that run the country, he must take an instinctive liking to all the courageous women in Iran, shedding their veils and protesting in favor of democracy and human rights.

That leaves China, on which Trump seems determined to play hardball. On this issue, part of the fun factor for him is forcing the Europeans’ hands choosing between access to the U.S. market or continued subservience/cooperation with Communist China.

The nuclear factor

Finally, Trump may literally be waiting for Putin to get uppity and continue to threaten going nuclear. That would give Trump an opportunity to put Russia in its place. Trump would tell his pal Putin in so many words to be very careful with his loose nuclear lips.

History beckons — the resurrection of the U.S./France/UK triad, along with powerful imagery, with Trump in the lead, seconded by Macron, followed by Starmer.

Stabilizing Germany under different political leadership

With Olaf Scholz and his SPD party literally quaking in their boots about Putin’s transparent nuclear saber-rattling the “German question” has been opened again.

At issue is the reliability of Germany as an ally. What’s at stake, though, is not Olaf Scholz, but Germany’s importance in the center of Europe.

The French and British have a great interest in competent and responsible people governing in Berlin. So does the U.S. government. They, along with the Scandinavians, the Balts, the Poles and others, do not want a Germany nixing any relevant Western actions as an act of escalation vis-à-vis Moscow, as has become pretty much Mr. Scholz’s reflexive habit.

As it stands, it will be the job of Friedrich Merz, who will likely lead the next Germany government, to tell Mr. Scholz’s SPD to man up and stop quaking in its shoes.

Conclusion

From Damascus, via Riyadh, Ankara, Teheran and Moscow all the way to Berlin, the Syrian Reconquista could end up being a really big deal. Fingers crossed.