France and Austria: Ominous Political Parallels?

The coalition negotiations of the democratic center in Austria have failed, largely because of the intransigence of the country’s Social Democrats. This is a situation politically quite similar to what is going on in France.  There, too, the Socialists refuse to cooperate sensibly with the parties of the center and center-right.

What is happening in Austria is a clear warning signal for France.  The fact that the hard-right FPÖ — the Austrian equivalent of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in France — has now gotten the nod from Austria’s very reluctant President to build a government coalition is a direct result of Austria‘s Social Democrats’ intransigence.

All of this is not because Austria’s center-right and the center liberals could not agree on a way forward, but because the left-wing Social Democrats have been adamant about no budget cuts.

Like France, Austria boasts a very generous welfare state.  However, the Austrian economy is no longer strong enough to generate the financial means to support such largesse.

Under those circumstances, some trimming — especially in pensions and the public sector — is inevitable.

Conclusion

Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orban must be delighted by such a deliberate form of self-mutilation of Austria’s democratic center at the hands of SPÖ — the country’s long-ruling, but now fading left-of-center party.

Which leads us to the pivotal question in a wider Europan context: Will the French Socialists pay attention and draw the right conclusions from the events in Austria for the political fate of their own nation?

For now, one must doubt it.

(Editor’s note: Updated on January 6, 2025, to reflect the coalition building mandate now given to the hard-right FPÖ).