Author
Holger Schmieding
Chief Economist of Berenberg Bank
[Berlin, Germany]
Holger Schmieding is chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. Before joining Germany’s oldest private bank in October 2010, he was chief economist for Europe at Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London.
Mr. Schmieding holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Kiel. Before working as a financial markets economist, he was a journalist at Germany’s Westfälische Nachrichten, head of a research group on East and Central Europe at the Kiel Institute of World Economics, and a desk economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.
Articles by Holger Schmieding
Italy: The Least Bad Outcome
Sergio Mattarella stays on as president, Mario Draghi remains prime minister. For Italy and Europe, this is the least bad outcome of Italy’s presidential election.
February 1, 2022
Merkel’s Fall from Grace
Germany’s long-term leading government party faces an uncertain political future.
March 25, 2021
Europe’s COVID 19 Response Put in Perspective
The EU tends to move more slowly -- but it does get its act together.
February 3, 2021
US Elections Update: A Narrower Lead for Biden
Despite a tightening race, another come-from-behind victory for Trump as in 2016 is very unlikely in 2020.
October 21, 2020
France: Au Revoir, Monsieur Philippe
One has to doubt that France’s new prime minister, Jean Castex, will pursue many reforms ahead of 2022.
July 4, 2020
COVID 19: Assessing the Global Political Fallout
The COVID 19 pandemic and the ensuing mega-recession may shape political debates and choices for a long time.
June 4, 2020
Healthcare Lessons for the Post-Corona World
Unlike the fallout from the 2008/9 global financial crisis, improving the healthcare sectors across the world should not retard economic growth.
April 9, 2020
COVID 19: Reflections on the “War” Analogy
Rhetoric aside, what are the analytical parallels – and differences -- between today’s extraordinary pandemic-related economic policies and the circumstances during or after a major war?
April 3, 2020
Coronavirus and the World Economy: What to Expect?
An unprecedented economic policy response to an extreme medical emergency.
March 23, 2020
EU27: Towards a Club of Clubs
The post-Brexit EU may look ever more like the kind of EU many Britons had wanted it to be.
February 7, 2020
Four Reasons Why von der Leyen Can Prevail
Despite some obstacles, it is likely that Ursula von der Leyen will lead the next European Commission.
July 4, 2019
EU: 8 Results to Watch
EU citizens head to the polls to elect a new parliament in the most important EU election in recent times. Here’s what to look out for.
May 23, 2019
Three Reasons for Hope for US-EU Trade
Despite Trump’s apparent obsession with German cars and the German trade surplus, political support in the U.S. for a trade war against the EU is much weaker than for getting tough on China.
April 26, 2019
US-EU Trade Talks: Two Giants at Loggerheads
Look for significant noise, but not for a genuine trade war across the Atlantic.
April 25, 2019
Trump Upping the Ante on US-EU Trade
Will the US and EU find a compromise on trade to avert a head-on clash?
February 18, 2019
The Global Economy as a Wild Card?
How is Europe impacted by transatlantic and U.S.-Chinese trade tensions and by trade with China itself?
November 13, 2018
Germany: Merz in Pole Position
How is the race to succeed Angela Merkel at the helm of the CDU, Germany’s largest party, shaping up?
November 2, 2018
Germany Finally Fit for the Euro
German fiscal bliss: Debt to GDP ratio can fall to 60% this year.
August 29, 2018
Italy and the Euro
If a radical government in Rome plunges Italy into a deep crisis, it would still be an Italian crisis -- rather than a “euro“ crisis.
May 30, 2018
Italy and the Yanis Varoufakis Effect
Populists in power, like Five Stars and the Lega in Italy, can do serious damage. In the case of Italy, the key risks are long-term rather than immediate.
May 16, 2018
Macron Vs. the Germans?
What is the middle ground that both Germany and France can agree on to move economic and financial reforms in the EU forward?
April 20, 2018
Global Trade War? The European Angle
The more the U.S. abstains from imposing new barriers to imports from the EU, the more may the EU support U.S. efforts to change Chinese trade and investment practices.
April 11, 2018
After Italy: Experience Shows That Populists Can Get Real
Though the populists have triumphed in Italy, examples show that populists often abandon their most dangerous demands and their euro scepticism in the pursuit of power.
March 7, 2018
Catalonia: First Signs of a Return to Reason?
Reviving the autonomy deal that foundered in Spain’s constitutional court back in 2010 would find the support of the majority of Spaniards, including the Catalans.
October 10, 2017
Germany’s SPD: To Serve or Not to Serve under Merkel?
The election and subsequent choice of coalition matter. But the differences between the various options are modest rather than stark.
September 18, 2017
Italy: Another Downer for the Populist Wave in Europe
Beppe Grillo's Five Stars movement loses some of its lustre.
June 12, 2017
Italy: Snap Elections in Late September?
Is Renzi putting his personal electoral interests over those of his country? And will his gamble pay off?
June 1, 2017
Globalization and the West: Coping With the Politics of Anger
What happens when the need for economic adjustment moves from the global South to the North.
August 31, 2016
Brexit: What If?
What happens if the UK voters decide on June 23, 2016 to leave the European Union?
June 17, 2016
The Economics of Brexit: A German View
Why Germany will not expend too much energy on a favorable deal for the UK if it quits the EU.
May 12, 2016
Greece’s Broad Pro-European Alliance
Alexis Tsipras is now at the mercy of the pro-European opposition. Can this alliance hold?
July 16, 2015
Germany and France: Stick Together on Greece
How will the end game on Greece's proposals play out?
July 9, 2015
The Real Meaning of Greece’s No
The Greeks have voted No. What is the road ahead for Greece and Europe?
July 6, 2015
How Syriza Makes It Harder on Greece
Relying almost exclusively on tax hikes makes Greek recovery more difficult.
June 23, 2015
Tsipras: Pandering to the Radicals?
The more time passes, the deeper Greece is descending into a costly renewed recession.
June 11, 2015
Spain and UK: Prickly Comparison for Cameron
Both UK and Spain are formally monarchies, have long coast lines and face separatist challenges.
May 11, 2015
Greece: Help from Putin?
How realistic are Greek announcements about a big energy deal with Russia?
April 20, 2015
Greece: Still Shying Away from the Hard Decisions
Unless Mr. Tsipras bites the bullet on tough reforms, Grexit will certainly become a reality.
April 17, 2015
What Greece Needs Now From Tsipras
Germany and France and the art of correcting erroneous economic policies.
April 2, 2015
Greece Needs Growth, But How?
Will Syriza pursue real reforms to get the country growing?
February 3, 2015
Notes From Athens: The Syriza Policy Illusions
The debate in Greece is too caught up on four major delusions.
January 29, 2015
Greece: Playing the Russia Card Against Europe?
If Greece wants to play the Russia card, it has some questions to consider first.
January 28, 2015
Greece: Potential Scenarios for a Prime Minister Tsipras
Opinion polls are projecting a victory for the left at the coming Greek election.
January 22, 2015
Greece: The Next Round of the Drama
Will Greece fall back into a deep fiscal crisis?
December 23, 2014
The Eurozone is About Tough Love
Help is available to countries in trouble – in exchange for meeting conditions.
October 20, 2014
The ECB’s Battle With the Markets: Home Truths from the Eurozone
Amidst global stock market turmoil, what about Europe’s fundamentals?
October 20, 2014
Why S&P’s Latest Call on Germany Misses the Mark
The emergence of some right-wing populists will not paralyze Germany's pro-euro policies.
September 25, 2014
The Scottish Vote and Europe’s Future
Scotland votes for more home rule within the UK, not independence.
September 19, 2014
From Sarajevo to Brussels: The Big Picture
The European Union helped to create a grand European peace.
July 1, 2014
Europe: Juncker or Not? It Doesn’t Matter
Who will get the jobs that really matter in Brussels?
June 13, 2014
Europe: How to Stabilize Ukraine
Focusing on three things – jobs, trade and free travel – can work wonders.
March 24, 2014
Why Putin Plays a Losing Hand on Ukraine
Thinking straight about Ukraine – in six theses
March 3, 2014
Ukraine’s Global Meaning: Four Theses
Ukraine stands at a crossroads. Let us hope Ukrainians seize the day for good.
February 25, 2014
United States Blames Germany? What Nonsense.
For the U.S. Treasury to criticize German economic policies is rather rich.
October 31, 2013
Japan: Is That Really The Third Arrow?
Does the third arrow of "Abenomics" miss the target in ending Japan's stagnation?
June 17, 2013
Thatcher, Merkel and the Euro
What is the legacy of Britain's Margaret Thatcher for Europe's crisis-stricken countries today?
April 10, 2013
Germans Do Consume
Is it really true that German workers' and consumers' appetite for shopping and consuming is repressed?
March 27, 2013
What If Italy Rolls Back Monti’s Reforms?
Italy has no choice but to build on Mario Monti's achievements.
January 28, 2013
Italy: The Least Bad Outcome
Sergio Mattarella stays on as president, Mario Draghi remains prime minister. For Italy and Europe, this is the least bad outcome of Italy’s presidential election.
February 1, 2022
Merkel’s Fall from Grace
Germany’s long-term leading government party faces an uncertain political future.
March 25, 2021
Europe’s COVID 19 Response Put in Perspective
The EU tends to move more slowly -- but it does get its act together.
February 3, 2021
US Elections Update: A Narrower Lead for Biden
Despite a tightening race, another come-from-behind victory for Trump as in 2016 is very unlikely in 2020.
October 21, 2020
France: Au Revoir, Monsieur Philippe
One has to doubt that France’s new prime minister, Jean Castex, will pursue many reforms ahead of 2022.
July 4, 2020
COVID 19: Assessing the Global Political Fallout
The COVID 19 pandemic and the ensuing mega-recession may shape political debates and choices for a long time.
June 4, 2020
Healthcare Lessons for the Post-Corona World
Unlike the fallout from the 2008/9 global financial crisis, improving the healthcare sectors across the world should not retard economic growth.
April 9, 2020
COVID 19: Reflections on the “War” Analogy
Rhetoric aside, what are the analytical parallels – and differences -- between today’s extraordinary pandemic-related economic policies and the circumstances during or after a major war?
April 3, 2020
Coronavirus and the World Economy: What to Expect?
An unprecedented economic policy response to an extreme medical emergency.
March 23, 2020
EU27: Towards a Club of Clubs
The post-Brexit EU may look ever more like the kind of EU many Britons had wanted it to be.
February 7, 2020
Four Reasons Why von der Leyen Can Prevail
Despite some obstacles, it is likely that Ursula von der Leyen will lead the next European Commission.
July 4, 2019
EU: 8 Results to Watch
EU citizens head to the polls to elect a new parliament in the most important EU election in recent times. Here’s what to look out for.
May 23, 2019
Three Reasons for Hope for US-EU Trade
Despite Trump’s apparent obsession with German cars and the German trade surplus, political support in the U.S. for a trade war against the EU is much weaker than for getting tough on China.
April 26, 2019
US-EU Trade Talks: Two Giants at Loggerheads
Look for significant noise, but not for a genuine trade war across the Atlantic.
April 25, 2019
Trump Upping the Ante on US-EU Trade
Will the US and EU find a compromise on trade to avert a head-on clash?
February 18, 2019
The Global Economy as a Wild Card?
How is Europe impacted by transatlantic and U.S.-Chinese trade tensions and by trade with China itself?
November 13, 2018
Germany: Merz in Pole Position
How is the race to succeed Angela Merkel at the helm of the CDU, Germany’s largest party, shaping up?
November 2, 2018
Germany Finally Fit for the Euro
German fiscal bliss: Debt to GDP ratio can fall to 60% this year.
August 29, 2018
Italy and the Euro
If a radical government in Rome plunges Italy into a deep crisis, it would still be an Italian crisis -- rather than a “euro“ crisis.
May 30, 2018
Italy and the Yanis Varoufakis Effect
Populists in power, like Five Stars and the Lega in Italy, can do serious damage. In the case of Italy, the key risks are long-term rather than immediate.
May 16, 2018
Macron Vs. the Germans?
What is the middle ground that both Germany and France can agree on to move economic and financial reforms in the EU forward?
April 20, 2018
Global Trade War? The European Angle
The more the U.S. abstains from imposing new barriers to imports from the EU, the more may the EU support U.S. efforts to change Chinese trade and investment practices.
April 11, 2018
After Italy: Experience Shows That Populists Can Get Real
Though the populists have triumphed in Italy, examples show that populists often abandon their most dangerous demands and their euro scepticism in the pursuit of power.
March 7, 2018
Catalonia: First Signs of a Return to Reason?
Reviving the autonomy deal that foundered in Spain’s constitutional court back in 2010 would find the support of the majority of Spaniards, including the Catalans.
October 10, 2017
Germany’s SPD: To Serve or Not to Serve under Merkel?
The election and subsequent choice of coalition matter. But the differences between the various options are modest rather than stark.
September 18, 2017
Italy: Another Downer for the Populist Wave in Europe
Beppe Grillo's Five Stars movement loses some of its lustre.
June 12, 2017
Italy: Snap Elections in Late September?
Is Renzi putting his personal electoral interests over those of his country? And will his gamble pay off?
June 1, 2017
Globalization and the West: Coping With the Politics of Anger
What happens when the need for economic adjustment moves from the global South to the North.
August 31, 2016
Brexit: What If?
What happens if the UK voters decide on June 23, 2016 to leave the European Union?
June 17, 2016
The Economics of Brexit: A German View
Why Germany will not expend too much energy on a favorable deal for the UK if it quits the EU.
May 12, 2016
Greece’s Broad Pro-European Alliance
Alexis Tsipras is now at the mercy of the pro-European opposition. Can this alliance hold?
July 16, 2015
Germany and France: Stick Together on Greece
How will the end game on Greece's proposals play out?
July 9, 2015
The Real Meaning of Greece’s No
The Greeks have voted No. What is the road ahead for Greece and Europe?
July 6, 2015
How Syriza Makes It Harder on Greece
Relying almost exclusively on tax hikes makes Greek recovery more difficult.
June 23, 2015
Tsipras: Pandering to the Radicals?
The more time passes, the deeper Greece is descending into a costly renewed recession.
June 11, 2015
Spain and UK: Prickly Comparison for Cameron
Both UK and Spain are formally monarchies, have long coast lines and face separatist challenges.
May 11, 2015
Greece: Help from Putin?
How realistic are Greek announcements about a big energy deal with Russia?
April 20, 2015
Greece: Still Shying Away from the Hard Decisions
Unless Mr. Tsipras bites the bullet on tough reforms, Grexit will certainly become a reality.
April 17, 2015
What Greece Needs Now From Tsipras
Germany and France and the art of correcting erroneous economic policies.
April 2, 2015
Greece Needs Growth, But How?
Will Syriza pursue real reforms to get the country growing?
February 3, 2015
Notes From Athens: The Syriza Policy Illusions
The debate in Greece is too caught up on four major delusions.
January 29, 2015
Greece: Playing the Russia Card Against Europe?
If Greece wants to play the Russia card, it has some questions to consider first.
January 28, 2015
Greece: Potential Scenarios for a Prime Minister Tsipras
Opinion polls are projecting a victory for the left at the coming Greek election.
January 22, 2015
Greece: The Next Round of the Drama
Will Greece fall back into a deep fiscal crisis?
December 23, 2014
The Eurozone is About Tough Love
Help is available to countries in trouble – in exchange for meeting conditions.
October 20, 2014
The ECB’s Battle With the Markets: Home Truths from the Eurozone
Amidst global stock market turmoil, what about Europe’s fundamentals?
October 20, 2014
Why S&P’s Latest Call on Germany Misses the Mark
The emergence of some right-wing populists will not paralyze Germany's pro-euro policies.
September 25, 2014
The Scottish Vote and Europe’s Future
Scotland votes for more home rule within the UK, not independence.
September 19, 2014
From Sarajevo to Brussels: The Big Picture
The European Union helped to create a grand European peace.
July 1, 2014
Europe: Juncker or Not? It Doesn’t Matter
Who will get the jobs that really matter in Brussels?
June 13, 2014
Europe: How to Stabilize Ukraine
Focusing on three things – jobs, trade and free travel – can work wonders.
March 24, 2014
Why Putin Plays a Losing Hand on Ukraine
Thinking straight about Ukraine – in six theses
March 3, 2014
Ukraine’s Global Meaning: Four Theses
Ukraine stands at a crossroads. Let us hope Ukrainians seize the day for good.
February 25, 2014
United States Blames Germany? What Nonsense.
For the U.S. Treasury to criticize German economic policies is rather rich.
October 31, 2013
Japan: Is That Really The Third Arrow?
Does the third arrow of "Abenomics" miss the target in ending Japan's stagnation?
June 17, 2013
Thatcher, Merkel and the Euro
What is the legacy of Britain's Margaret Thatcher for Europe's crisis-stricken countries today?
April 10, 2013
Germans Do Consume
Is it really true that German workers' and consumers' appetite for shopping and consuming is repressed?
March 27, 2013
What If Italy Rolls Back Monti’s Reforms?
Italy has no choice but to build on Mario Monti's achievements.
January 28, 2013