Author
Holger Schmieding
Chief Economist of Berenberg Bank
[Berlin, Germany]
Holger Schmieding is chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. Before joining Germany’s oldest private bank in October 2010, he was chief economist for Europe at Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London.
Mr. Schmieding holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Kiel. Before working as a financial markets economist, he was a journalist at Germany’s Westfälische Nachrichten, head of a research group on East and Central Europe at the Kiel Institute of World Economics, and a desk economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.
Articles by Holger Schmieding
Macron/Le Pen: Cohabitation in France?
Another possibility is that France may also end up with a hung parliament, in which neither the far-right nor the left nor centrist forces could muster a majority.
June 13, 2024
Debt and Migration: Does Germany Need a New Consensus?
Germany needs to take major decisions on migration and fiscal policy soon.
November 6, 2023
Greece: A Vote for Stability, Growth and Reforms
A second term for Kyriakos Mitsotakis is not just good news for Greece. It also sends important signals to Europe.
June 28, 2023
Needed: A Clear German Stance Toward China
Why the German government needs a new and tougher policy toward an increasingly aggressive China.
August 9, 2022
Italy: The Least Bad Outcome
Sergio Mattarella stays on as president, Mario Draghi remains prime minister. For Italy and Europe, this is the least bad outcome of Italy’s presidential election.
February 1, 2022
Merkel’s Fall from Grace
Germany’s long-term leading government party faces an uncertain political future.
March 25, 2021
Europe’s COVID 19 Response Put in Perspective
The EU tends to move more slowly -- but it does get its act together.
February 3, 2021
US Elections Update: A Narrower Lead for Biden
Despite a tightening race, another come-from-behind victory for Trump as in 2016 is very unlikely in 2020.
October 21, 2020
Boris Breaks the Divorce Treaty: What Can the EU Do?
The ways in which the EU can put pressure on a UK that is going rogue are very limited -- and potentially vast at the same time.
September 16, 2020
Brexit Negotiations: What Are They Waiting For?
In its negotiations with the EU, the UK government still puts false hopes on “heavenly” intervention by Germany’s Angela Merkel.
August 26, 2020
Germany’s COVID 19 Comeback Story
Germany looks at a solid, but uneven economic rebound from the pandemic, largely based on a pronounced home bias in economic activity.
August 11, 2020
France: Au Revoir, Monsieur Philippe
One has to doubt that France’s new prime minister, Jean Castex, will pursue many reforms ahead of 2022.
July 4, 2020
COVID 19: Assessing the Global Political Fallout
The COVID 19 pandemic and the ensuing mega-recession may shape political debates and choices for a long time.
June 4, 2020
Trump Threatens China
Will Trump unleash a new trade war that could seriously impede the post-corona recovery?
May 5, 2020
Healthcare Lessons for the Post-Corona World
Unlike the fallout from the 2008/9 global financial crisis, improving the healthcare sectors across the world should not retard economic growth.
April 9, 2020
COVID 19: Reflections on the “War” Analogy
Rhetoric aside, what are the analytical parallels – and differences -- between today’s extraordinary pandemic-related economic policies and the circumstances during or after a major war?
April 3, 2020
Coronavirus and the World Economy: What to Expect?
An unprecedented economic policy response to an extreme medical emergency.
March 23, 2020
Coronavirus: Scenarios for Europe
What is the economic fallout going to be for sure? And what will it be if it’s a bad case?
March 14, 2020
Germany: Political Helter-Skelter
The AfD’s Thuringia maneuver caught Germany’s right-of-center parties flat-footed. The odds of a leftist coalition at the federal level in 2021 are rising.
February 12, 2020
The UK’s Post-Brexit Hangover
When the Tories’ partying is over, the UK will realize it has little choice but to coordinate with its EU neighbors.
February 8, 2020
EU27: Towards a Club of Clubs
The post-Brexit EU may look ever more like the kind of EU many Britons had wanted it to be.
February 7, 2020
German “New SPD”: No Real Red Lines, No Hard Deadlines
It looks like CDU/CSU and SPD agreeing to stay together throughout 2020. But the risk that the SPD throws in the towel continues to loom large.
December 9, 2019
German Politics: Bad News for Merkel
Germany’s center-left SPD will be led in the future by a little-known left-wing duo that is highly critical of the SPD’s role in Angela Merkel’s government.
December 2, 2019
Will Germany See Red Soon?
Germany's parties on the left are only a few percentage points short of a potential majority.
November 25, 2019
The Brexit Saga: Seven Lessons for the EU
The lessons that the EU will – hopefully – draw from Brexit should give it a good chance to weather other storms.
October 21, 2019
Johnson’s New Deal: Not Good Enough
The UK’s new Brexit plan raises five EU concerns.
October 5, 2019
Brexit Flash: Boris Versus Parliament
Suspending parliament would accentuate the hard Brexit risk and the UK’s constitutional crisis.
August 28, 2019
EU Politics: A Narrow Vote for Progress
Can von der Leyen make a difference? Probably yes -- but only modestly so.
July 17, 2019
Greece: A Solid Base for Reform
The European Commission should grant Greece short-term fiscal leeway under the condition that Mitsotakis indeed delivers the promised reforms.
July 9, 2019
Four Reasons Why von der Leyen Can Prevail
Despite some obstacles, it is likely that Ursula von der Leyen will lead the next European Commission.
July 4, 2019
EU: A Workable Deal on the Top Jobs
A deal on how to fill the top jobs in Europe is almost across the line. The actual candidates however are somewhat surprising.
July 3, 2019
Boris or Jeremy: Expect No Present from the EU
Boris Johnson would face a specific handicap in his talks with Brussels. The desire to grant him any concession is virtually zero.
June 25, 2019
Germany’s Greens: Long Wave or Short Hype?
Buoyed by its recent election success, could Germany’s Green Party claim the chancellorship when Merkel leaves office?
June 14, 2019
No Deal Exit? UK Should Think Twice
Even in case of a hard Brexit, the UK would probably end up having to accept most of the Withdrawal Agreement.
May 25, 2019
Brexit: Could Boris Do What Theresa Could Not?
While he did not endear himself to his continental colleagues during his stint as foreign minister, Boris Johnson’s flexibility could turn into an advantage.
May 25, 2019
After Theresa: The Brexit Mess and the EU
Many on the continent may now see an orderly “velvet” Brexit as the least bad among the realistic outcomes.
May 25, 2019
EU: 8 Results to Watch
EU citizens head to the polls to elect a new parliament in the most important EU election in recent times. Here’s what to look out for.
May 23, 2019
Three Reasons for Hope for US-EU Trade
Despite Trump’s apparent obsession with German cars and the German trade surplus, political support in the U.S. for a trade war against the EU is much weaker than for getting tough on China.
April 26, 2019
US-EU Trade Talks: Two Giants at Loggerheads
Look for significant noise, but not for a genuine trade war across the Atlantic.
April 25, 2019
Brexit Mess: The EU Angle
A short eight-week delay to adjust the joint statement on post-Brexit relations accordingly would be fine for the EU27.
March 13, 2019
A Contrarian Call on France
Macron suffered the fate of his predecessors -- shortly after taking office, popularity slumps. But the worst may be over now.
February 25, 2019
Trump Upping the Ante on US-EU Trade
Will the US and EU find a compromise on trade to avert a head-on clash?
February 18, 2019
Brexit: The UK’s Fundamental Miscalculations on Europe
Any final Brexit deal will come with a lot of cherry picking.
But it will be EU that will do the picking – not the UK.
December 19, 2018
Macron = Renzi? Probably Not
Macron has two advantages over Matteo Renzi: A solid majority in parliament and the ability to give protesters some fiscal concessions.
December 10, 2018
German Politics: Advantage “Mini-Merkel”
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is widely seen as being close to Merkel. She seems to benefit from a little “Merkel nostalgia.”
November 28, 2018
The Global Economy as a Wild Card?
How is Europe impacted by transatlantic and U.S.-Chinese trade tensions and by trade with China itself?
November 13, 2018
Germany: Merz in Pole Position
How is the race to succeed Angela Merkel at the helm of the CDU, Germany’s largest party, shaping up?
November 2, 2018
German Politics: It Could Have Been Worse
The centre-right CSU and the centre-left SPD lost the state election in Bavaria. This spells some trouble for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU-SPD coalition in Berlin.
October 15, 2018
Will Italy’s Finances Shake Europe?
Five Star leader Di Maio still has not learned that comments which may go down well during an election campaign can easily backfire for a senior politician in office.
October 8, 2018
EU Summit: Too Early for a Brexit Deal
UK politicians should not overrate the current attempt by the EU27 to be nice to Theresa May.
September 20, 2018
Turkey’s Next Challenge: How Bad Can Inflation Get?
How Turkey’s central bank plans to regain market confidence that it will eventually hit its 5% inflation target again remains a mystery.
September 4, 2018
Germany Finally Fit for the Euro
German fiscal bliss: Debt to GDP ratio can fall to 60% this year.
August 29, 2018
How Big Is the Turkish Contagion Risk for Emerging Markets?
Contagion from the Turkish crisis to other emerging markets is not widespread.
August 20, 2018
Options for Turkey
What the Erdogan government must do if it wants to avoid a "cold Turkey" economic shock.
August 17, 2018
Italy and the Populists: Heading for an Even Hotter September?
It may take a further rise in Italian bond yields to remind the populist government's leaders in Rome that their room for maneuver to operate with more debt is very limited.
August 14, 2018
The Sad Irony of Brexit
Though UK voters have changed their tune on Brexit, there is little chance that it will be reversed.
July 23, 2018
Six Ways How Trump Gets Trade and Europe Wrong
What Europe earns by selling goods to the U.S., it spends on licensing fees for U.S. technology and on U.S. services. Nothing unfair here.
July 10, 2018
Germany: Will the CSU Really Topple Merkel?
The demise of the current Merkel government is not the most likely outcome yet. Both CSU and CDU would have too much to lose from it.
June 26, 2018
Italy: The Master of Its Fate
If Italy’s government tames its radical instincts it could be allowed to get away with a few things. But if it is confrontational with the EU it will be heading for trouble.
June 20, 2018
Will Merkel Fall?
If the CSU does not agree to any compromise on migration policy, Merkel’s government may fall apart.
June 18, 2018
How Trump Gets It Wrong on Trade
The U.S. President seems to have the upper hand – for now. He doesn’t realize how his trade actions will backfire at home.
June 1, 2018
Italy and the Euro
If a radical government in Rome plunges Italy into a deep crisis, it would still be an Italian crisis -- rather than a “euro“ crisis.
May 30, 2018
Italy Versus Germany: The Real Story
The saga of a dynamic Germany and a sclerotic Italy does not reflect the historical record.
May 28, 2018
Italy and the Yanis Varoufakis Effect
Populists in power, like Five Stars and the Lega in Italy, can do serious damage. In the case of Italy, the key risks are long-term rather than immediate.
May 16, 2018
Macron Vs. the Germans?
What is the middle ground that both Germany and France can agree on to move economic and financial reforms in the EU forward?
April 20, 2018
Global Trade War? The European Angle
The more the U.S. abstains from imposing new barriers to imports from the EU, the more may the EU support U.S. efforts to change Chinese trade and investment practices.
April 11, 2018
After Italy: Experience Shows That Populists Can Get Real
Though the populists have triumphed in Italy, examples show that populists often abandon their most dangerous demands and their euro scepticism in the pursuit of power.
March 7, 2018
After Italy: Dealing with the Populist Menace in Europe
To advance their prospects of finding partners, both 5Star and Lega have ditched the most dangerous part of their erstwhile agenda. But significant risks remain.
March 7, 2018
German Politics: The Limbo Is Over
With a new term for Merkel, Germany and Europe can breathe a sigh of relief.
March 5, 2018
German Politics: What If the SPD Balks?
Even if the SPD votes against joining a new “GroKo” government, the damage which prolonged political uncertainty in Berlin would inflict on Germany and Europe would be very limited.
January 20, 2018
Germany and Europe: A New Relationship?
If it comes to pass, Germany’s new “grand coalition” government’s EU-related plans represent progress for Macron’s calls to reform Europe.
January 19, 2018
Interpreting Germany’s New Grand Coalition Deal: A First Assessment
Germany will continue to gradually slip from the top to the upper middle ranks of the growth league of major European countries. Its current golden decade will end in the 2020s.
January 13, 2018
Governing Germany: More of the Same?
Germany’s current political contortions will likely end with a fourth term for Merkel.
November 28, 2017
Germans Live in Interesting Times
Four questions about the country’s near-term political path.
November 21, 2017
Catalonia: First Signs of a Return to Reason?
Reviving the autonomy deal that foundered in Spain’s constitutional court back in 2010 would find the support of the majority of Spaniards, including the Catalans.
October 10, 2017
Catalan Questions
What's ahead for Catalonia, Spain and the EU following the tumultuous Catalan independence referendum?
October 2, 2017
Your 12 Point Guide to the German Elections
Here's what you need to know about Germany’s September 24 elections.
September 22, 2017
Spain’s Catalan Independence Intermezzo
As much as quite a few Catalans may want independence from Spain, it is practically impossible. But more regional autonomy is certainly possible.
September 20, 2017
Germany’s SPD: To Serve or Not to Serve under Merkel?
The election and subsequent choice of coalition matter. But the differences between the various options are modest rather than stark.
September 18, 2017
The German Consensus Machine
Don’t look for major policy changes in Germany after the September 24 federal elections.
September 5, 2017
Crunch Time in Paris
Will Macron deliver? And what will French economic reforms mean for all of Europe?
August 30, 2017
German Political Update: Merkel’s Choice
Angela Merkel looks set for a comfortable win in next month's German elections. But which coalition partner will she choose?
August 11, 2017
The Germans Follow Keynes’ Advice!
If anything, the German Problem is complacency, not the current account surplus.
August 1, 2017
UK: Abdicating a Proud Legacy
Britain's political situation and its long-term economic outlook have become more precarious than they have been at any time since the late 1970s.
June 17, 2017
Italy: Another Downer for the Populist Wave in Europe
Beppe Grillo's Five Stars movement loses some of its lustre.
June 12, 2017
Italy: Snap Elections in Late September?
Is Renzi putting his personal electoral interests over those of his country? And will his gamble pay off?
June 1, 2017
The Macron Effect: Can France Overtake Germany Again?
It’s not a foregone conclusion that Germany always has the upper hand economically over France.
May 7, 2017
France: Mélenchon for President?
A run-off between the far right and the far left candidates would be a choice between bad and ugly for France and Europe.
April 20, 2017
Theresa May’s Very Iffy Brexit Strategy
What can actually be agreed before the UK leaves the EU?
April 4, 2017
Britain’s Big Brexit Gamble
This is the worst setback ever for the process of European integration that started with a six-nation coal and steel community in 1952 – but for whom precisely?
March 30, 2017
How Britain Punishes Itself
Theresa May’s Brexit plan will do some significant damage to the British economy.
January 17, 2017
Italy: 60% Risk That Renzi Loses
Despite potential referendum loss, risk of new elections, bigger political upheaval or Italy leaving the euro is quite low.
November 30, 2016
Theresa May Seems To Opt for Hard Brexit
The UK’s Prime Minister’s emerging strategy for a hard Brexit will mean significantly reduced access to the EU market.
October 4, 2016
Spain: The Clock Is Ticking
Spanish voters are dismayed with self-absorbed politicians who are determined to hold yet another national election which few voters want.
September 6, 2016
Globalization and the West: Coping With the Politics of Anger
What happens when the need for economic adjustment moves from the global South to the North.
August 31, 2016
Brexit’s Contagion Risks
Will the British vote to leave the EU embolden anti-European populists elsewhere in Europe?
July 6, 2016
The EU, Scotland, UK Triangle
For the time being, EU-27 will consider the Scottish issue as an internal affair of the UK. The EU has enough issues to ponder.
July 5, 2016
Brex-Back? Probably Not
Could the UK exit from the Brexit? Could Boris Johnson do a Tsipras?
June 29, 2016
Brexit: What If?
What happens if the UK voters decide on June 23, 2016 to leave the European Union?
June 17, 2016
The Economics of Brexit: A German View
Why Germany will not expend too much energy on a favorable deal for the UK if it quits the EU.
May 12, 2016
Refugee Crisis: The EU’s Turkey Connection
Europe has to tread carefully as Turkey itself is in a precarious situation.
January 22, 2016
A Third Wave of Financial Crisis?
After Lehman and the Eurozone, will China and oil cause another calamity in the markets?
January 19, 2016
Spain: Another Election in Early 2016?
A messy election result may make forming a Spanish government extra hard.
December 21, 2015
Migration: Notes on Potential Impact on Europe
Domestic policy response matters more than any decision about an initial distribution of migrants.
September 9, 2015
Right-Wing Populism: A Threat to the Cohesion of Europe?
A populist backlash in Europe against immigration is more dangerous than in the United States.
September 8, 2015
The Eurozone After Greece: Spain Vs. France
How do the EU’s third- and fifth-largest economies compare with regard to reform readiness?
August 17, 2015
The IMF Goes Varoufakis? Please Don’t!
Message to Washington: Debt relief for Greece is a big fat red herring.
August 3, 2015
Greece’s Broad Pro-European Alliance
Alexis Tsipras is now at the mercy of the pro-European opposition. Can this alliance hold?
July 16, 2015
China’s Casino Moment
Will trouble in China cause contagion to other emerging markets far away?
July 9, 2015
Germany and France: Stick Together on Greece
How will the end game on Greece's proposals play out?
July 9, 2015
The Real Meaning of Greece’s No
The Greeks have voted No. What is the road ahead for Greece and Europe?
July 6, 2015
Greece: How Long Can Tsipras Cling to Power?
Will Greeks' common sense on the euro trump over the undeniable charisma of Tsipras?
July 3, 2015
How Syriza Makes It Harder on Greece
Relying almost exclusively on tax hikes makes Greek recovery more difficult.
June 23, 2015
Tsipras: Pandering to the Radicals?
The more time passes, the deeper Greece is descending into a costly renewed recession.
June 11, 2015
Spain and UK: Prickly Comparison for Cameron
Both UK and Spain are formally monarchies, have long coast lines and face separatist challenges.
May 11, 2015
Greece: Help from Putin?
How realistic are Greek announcements about a big energy deal with Russia?
April 20, 2015
Greece: Still Shying Away from the Hard Decisions
Unless Mr. Tsipras bites the bullet on tough reforms, Grexit will certainly become a reality.
April 17, 2015
What Greece Needs Now From Tsipras
Germany and France and the art of correcting erroneous economic policies.
April 2, 2015
Greece Needs Growth, But How?
Will Syriza pursue real reforms to get the country growing?
February 3, 2015
Notes From Athens: The Syriza Policy Illusions
The debate in Greece is too caught up on four major delusions.
January 29, 2015
Greece: Playing the Russia Card Against Europe?
If Greece wants to play the Russia card, it has some questions to consider first.
January 28, 2015
Greece: Potential Scenarios for a Prime Minister Tsipras
Opinion polls are projecting a victory for the left at the coming Greek election.
January 22, 2015
Greece: The Next Round of the Drama
Will Greece fall back into a deep fiscal crisis?
December 23, 2014
The Eurozone is About Tough Love
Help is available to countries in trouble – in exchange for meeting conditions.
October 20, 2014
The ECB’s Battle With the Markets: Home Truths from the Eurozone
Amidst global stock market turmoil, what about Europe’s fundamentals?
October 20, 2014
Why S&P’s Latest Call on Germany Misses the Mark
The emergence of some right-wing populists will not paralyze Germany's pro-euro policies.
September 25, 2014
The Scottish Vote and Europe’s Future
Scotland votes for more home rule within the UK, not independence.
September 19, 2014
From Sarajevo to Brussels: The Big Picture
The European Union helped to create a grand European peace.
July 1, 2014
Europe: Juncker or Not? It Doesn’t Matter
Who will get the jobs that really matter in Brussels?
June 13, 2014
Europe: How to Stabilize Ukraine
Focusing on three things – jobs, trade and free travel – can work wonders.
March 24, 2014
Why Putin Plays a Losing Hand on Ukraine
Thinking straight about Ukraine – in six theses
March 3, 2014
Ukraine’s Global Meaning: Four Theses
Ukraine stands at a crossroads. Let us hope Ukrainians seize the day for good.
February 25, 2014
United States Blames Germany? What Nonsense.
For the U.S. Treasury to criticize German economic policies is rather rich.
October 31, 2013
Japan: Is That Really The Third Arrow?
Does the third arrow of "Abenomics" miss the target in ending Japan's stagnation?
June 17, 2013
Thatcher, Merkel and the Euro
What is the legacy of Britain's Margaret Thatcher for Europe's crisis-stricken countries today?
April 10, 2013
Germans Do Consume
Is it really true that German workers' and consumers' appetite for shopping and consuming is repressed?
March 27, 2013
What If Italy Rolls Back Monti’s Reforms?
Italy has no choice but to build on Mario Monti's achievements.
January 28, 2013
Little England: What’s Left If Scotland Leaves?
What is more likely to happen first: Greece will leave the eurozone, or Scotland will leave the UK?
October 24, 2012
How the ECB Really Works
Why doesn't the European Central Bank act more like the Fed in its approach to the economic crisis?
September 5, 2012
Europe’s Champions on Different Economic Paths
Why is Spain starting look a little more robust economically than Britain?
August 13, 2012
Britain’s Self-Defeating Blame Game
How justified are claims by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne that the eurozone crisis is killing Britain's economic recovery?
June 19, 2012