David Cameron, the Minimalist

2. Reform and limit access to social benefits for EU migrant workers. Again this no big problem, as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has already signaled governments have power to do this.

The only hiccup would be if the proposal is to amend certain directives, which requires the assent of the European Parliament. In addition, some eastern EU governments will not accept discrimination against their citizens. But this is a matter of wording.

3. Give more power to national parliaments. Again this is already in the Lisbon Treaty but it means national parliaments have to create their own network and form a blocking group.

The EU cannot give each individual national parliament the right to veto directives or Treaties, but Commission First Vice-President Frans Timmermans has long argued for more involvement of national parliaments. Language can be found on this to satisfy Cameron with a promise to examine putting into the next Treaty more reference to national parliaments.

4. Agreement that the Eurozone cannot impose rules that discriminate against non-Eurozone countries. This battle has been won with the ECJ upholding a UK complaint against the proposal that Euro trades can only be carried out in a Eurozone country. The wording will be tricky but not impossible.

If these reports are right, then the Cameron list of what he wants from the EU is so minimalist as not to matter much. It is far removed from limiting immigrants, repatriating powers, allowing the House of Commons to veto EU law and policy and other demands that the Tories, Eurosceptic papers and UKIP have put forward.

There is nothing on Social Europe, so the demands from the CBI and other business organizations for more power for employers and less rights for workers have just been ignored.

Cameron the minimalist

Assuming these minimalist demands are all that Cameron wants, he can have those in time for the summer holidays.

Good news? Not quite. While Cameron’s spin doctors were offering the vision of a quick and cheerful easy deal, his Finance Minister, George Osborne, who is charge of the negotiations got a tongue-lashing in Brussels this week as fellow Finance Ministers told him to lower expectations.

The French finance minister, Michel Sapin, said Britain was like Greece in insisting on tortuous negotiations that would get no where.

Sapin insisted there was no question of changing the EU Treaty which many Tories believe is necessary to lock in any new relationship with the EU. The German Finance Minister, the hardline Wolfgang Schäuble, said that Osborne was “silly” and had made “unnecessary” remarks about the Eurozone to which the UK does not belong.

Small change of usual Brussels wrangling? Yes, but Finance Ministers do not usually insult a colleague on the record and Cameron’s softly-softly spin in London is not matched by the Varoufakis style hectoring from his chief negotiator in Brussels.

One of the most senior Commission officials until recently in charge of social and employment policy said in a Social Europe video discussion recorded at the European Parliament that Cameron’s call for different treatment of British and EU workers was discriminatory and would be rejected by other governments and the European Court of Justice.

It might be possible to reduce the level of benefit paid to children living abroad of workers in the UK to the norms in their home countries. Such ways of changing policy are possible, with the exception of the EU Treaty, which cannot be opened up for discussion until after 2019.

But in private discussions Tory MEPs in the European Parliament were insisting that limits on EU citizens coming to work in Britain did need to be agreed on, if they were to vote Yes to any agreement.

In the end, whatever deal is reached, there is no guarantee the Brits will vote to stay in. Even countries that have high levels of pro-EU feeling like the Netherlands or Ireland change once a referendum is called. The pleasure in voting down what the government elites propose becomes very strong.

Irrespective of any package Brussels fashions for London, Mr. Cameron’s plebiscite on Europe will unleash populist passions which have their own momentum and raison d’être and which very likely will not be assuaged by the minimalist deal he may secure.

The English people will be eager to have their own say on the European project that has for so long been denounced in Britain by many politicians and most of the press.

Editor’s note: This feature was adapted from Denis MacShane’s latest book, “Brexit: How Britain Will Leave Europe” (I. B. Tauris, March 2015).