End of the Ukraine War?

When Yevgeny Prigozhin blamed the Russian Defense Ministry, saying it had duped Vladimir Putin into last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he burst the bubble of Putin’s imperial design on Ukraine.

Prigozhin stated flatly that “the decision had nothing to do with ‘denazification’ or ‘demilitarization,’ or an imminent NATO attack on Russia – the official reasons for the war.” Instead, the Russian military launched a pointless war, ran it incompetently and unnecessarily killed tens of thousands of Russian soldiers.

In other words, Russia based its war in Ukraine on a lie that has cost thousands of Russian soldiers. “Prigozhin is now telling the truth about the military failure and the official pretext for the invasion,” said Fiona Hill, the chancellor-designate of Durham University in Britain who oversaw Russia policy in the Trump White House. “He openly says what a lot of other people are thinking,” she added.

Putin’s response

In his televised speech on the Wagner Group, Vladimir Putin described Prigozhin’s March of Justice as a “stab in the back of our troops and the people of Russia.”

“Exactly this strike was dealt with in 1917 when the country was in World War I. Still, its victory was stolen,” Putin said, comparing the insurrection to the uprising that destroyed czarist Russia during the First World War.

“Intrigues and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe: Destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war.”

If it was a “stab in the back,” as Putin stated, it was against the illusion of Russia’s imperial privilege to expand territory and colonize Ukraine. Putin’s dilemma is to decide whether to continue to pursue his imperial ambitions in the Ukraine war or prevent the destruction of Russia itself.

The Ukraine War is dangerous for Putin for its crimes of aggression and the Russian Army’s failures. Phillip Sands, a renowned human rights lawyer, notes that “Putin’s use of military force is a crime of aggression, the waging of illegal war, an idea that originated at Nuremberg as “crimes against peace.”

China’s Ukraine peace plan and the Vietnam precedent

One year into Russia’s war against Ukraine, China announced a 12-point proposal to end the fighting, saying it is trying to mediate the war. Its pro-Russian support, nevertheless, contained a provision that is highly relevant to Russia’s invasion and crimes of aggression against Ukraine.

The peace plan says the sovereignty of all countries should be upheld. There is an appropriate lesson China could bring to Russia. In a conflict about Vietnam’s border and its alignment with Russia, on February 17, 1979, Chinese troops attacked Vietnam’s border provincial capitals.

The attacks claimed tens of thousands of lives in Vietnam’s border provinces, soldiers and civilians alike. However, in early March 1979, China suddenly declared its “lesson” to Vietnam was finished, and it withdrew completely in that March.

Conclusion

If Putin’s nationalist friends wish to stabilize Russia, China could help them conclude that ending the war, recognizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity and accepting the UN Charter and the rule of law could avoid a repeat of the 1917 Russian Revolution. That could be more important than colonizing Ukraine.