Will Greece Break the Mold of 21st Century European Politics?

Greece likes to proclaim itself as the cradle of democracy. It is a fair claim, since many of the ground rules of democracy – secret ballots, open debates, enforceable laws and treatises on political philosophy – were set out in Athens 2,500 years ago.

And Greece has bucked the trend of 21st century politics. It was openly and cruelly punished by Angela Merkel, who was desperate to save German banks and industrial conglomerates that had corrupted Greek politicians and officials well before Greece swapped the drachma for the Euro at the turn of the century.

No turn to nationalist, anti-Brussels demagogy

But Greece is the rare EU member state not to have relapsed into extremist nationalist, xenophobic or anti-Brussels demagogy in the manner of Le Pen in France, Farage in England, Salvini in Italy or Wilders in the Netherlands.

Nor, despite being in the front-line of asylum-seekers arriving from Mediterranean and Arab Muslim states, has Greece allowed open race-hate politics to win and keep a big foothold in its parliament – as has happened in Austria, Sweden, Switzerland or East German regional parliaments.

The other side of the coin

Yet, in other ways, Greece has reflected the extreme volatility of early 21st-century politics. After all, the Greek far-left party Syriza – a coalition of new left, old Marxists, anti-system and university-based activism – won power and governed Greece a decade ago.

In the first years of the 21st century, Europe saw a surge of new parties on the left and right – Syriza, Die Linke, Podemos, Momentum Labour and 5 Stars on the anti-social democratic left, and Lega, Reconquéte, UKIP, Jobbik, Vlaams Belang and Chega on the right.

There are others, but few have real staying power. Giorgia Meloni, leader of Brothers of Italy, a party that does not hide the close links of its founding members with Mussolini and Italian fascism, became Prime Minister of Italy – but under the supervision of Mario Draghi, a centrist technocrats’ technocrat.

Meloni, like Marine Le Pen, has dropped all the anti-EU rhetoric of the nationalist right in the first decade and a half of the 21st century.

The left’s comeback

The center-left has come back in the UK, with 501 MPs in the Commons elected for Labour, LibDems, SNP and Greens after a clear repudiation by voters of hard right politics.

In some countries, the democratic reformist left has allied with more extreme left parties like Podemos in Spain or La France Insoumise – the anti-compromise party headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Predictions of a far-right takeover have not panned out

Yet, the thesis advanced a decade ago by many academics like Cas Mudde and journalists that Europe was about to be taken over by the far-right has not quite worked out.

The racist, identity, nationalist, populist right is strong, but not strong enough to form governments or, so far, to take over states as in the manner of Italian, German or Spanish and Portuguese fascism in the interwar years.

In short, European politics is a kaleidoscope, unlike in the 20th century with two big left and right monoliths with a little space for liberals. Today, European politics are also very volatile, with parties emerging but then fading away quickly.

Greece: A remarkable exception

Greece somehow has escaped the curse of the ethno-nationalist identity populism which has disfigured European politics for much of this century.

Despite receiving many of the economic migrants and those escaping political repression from Africa and the Muslim world who flee to Europe, and despite opening its doors to one million Albanian and Kosovar immigrant workers to do all the low-pay work the native Greeks prefer not to do, Greece has so far avoided having the kind of xenophobic, anti-refugee and anti-immigrant parties that have won millions of votes, if not governing power, north of the Alps.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ fall from grace

Unfortunately, it now appears that it is the turn of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the fluent English-speaking, U.S.-educated Greek Prime Minister, to fall from grace.

In 2019 and 2023, Mitsotakis, who heads one of the three major family dynasties that control right-wing politics in Greece, won handsomely with 40% of all votes.

Back to Greek dynastic crony politics

But the longer he has stayed in power, the more he has reverted to age-old Greek dynastic crony politics, in his case favoring the New Democracy Party. This has resulted in rewarding family members, donors and supporters with government contracts and key posts in the government’s gift.

His Prime Minister’s office has been staffed with family members, some of whom are being investigated by the European Parliament over illegal wiretaps of Greek opposition MEPs.

The shine has gone off him, and his poll standings are down to 22%, less than support for the combined left vote in Greece.

That is quite a turn of events for the poster boy of the European People’s Party – the grouping of center-right parties that control the European Commission and dominate the European Parliament.

Depending on division within the left

The ability of Mitsotakis to hold on to power depends on division within the left. The anti-reformist left party Syriza that governed Greece a decade ago came into power as a response to the fury in Greece over the harsh austerity terms imposed by Angela Merkel, the most-hated woman in Greece, in the context of the eurozone crisis.

These days, most Greek observers, even participants in the formation of Syriza 15 years ago, such as the former European Commissioner, Maria Danaki, agree that the party has had its moment and won’t return.

Pasok rising

Pasok – the 20th-century Greek socialist party that was founded when Greece’s military junta was overthrown in 1974 – has overtaken Syriza in the polls.

Like Nea Dimokratia on the right, so is Pasok on the left also controlled by a family dynasty. First, it was George Papandreou in the 1940s and 1960s, then his son, Andreas Papandreou, then his grandson George.

Although the party has overcome its low standing after the eurozone crisis, it too is weakened by personal ambitions and rivalries. The Pasok mayor of Athens has just challenged and lost his bid to replace the Pasok leader.

Politicians as actors and orators – plus competent government managers

The latter is an unknown MEP who sports a beard, is honest but without charisma in a nation that invented theater – and therefore expects its political chiefs to be actors and orators as well as competent government managers.

If Pasok can find a leader as Labour in the UK found one in Sir Keir Starmer, then the rule of the rightist family dynasties in Greece may soon be over.

Conclusion

To have an effective political competition in the country offering the best way forward, Greece needs modern leaders on the left who can bring Pasok and Syriza under one roof and reach out to all Greeks who want to modernize the nation and its economy.