Regretting Brexit: Has the UK Seen the Error of Its Ways?

For the first time, Britain is saying it would vote to rejoin the EU if a new referendum to reverse the decision of the one in 2016 were to be held.

According to the respected political pollster YouGov, a majority of Britons (55%) say that if the EU referendum were taking place now, they would vote to Remain.

Three in ten (31%) say that they would vote to Leave. This gives a headline voting intention of 64% to 36%.

There have been plenty of polls this year showing a majority of Brits now think Brexit was a mistake and bad for Britain. For example, 86% of under 25s say they would like to rejoin the EU.

A massive shift

The massive shift of voters against Conservatives in three by-elections last week reflects this change of mood. The Tories narrowly retained one London seat thanks to a localised controversy over a Labour tax on polluting older cars – many owned by poorer voters.

But even here the rise in share of the Labour vote and decline of the Conservative vote suggests that no one any longer believes the line of the last 5 Tory prime ministers that the EU was bad for Britain.

So, seven years after the vote to leave Europe based on 25 years of lies by a well-financed Brexit campaign with massive support in the press (including in the BBC and the comment pages of the liberal-left Guardian), we are told by voters it was all a mistake and could we please rejoin the EU.

The cake doesn’t taste so good after all

It normally takes two or more elections in Britain for a government to be replaced. Therefore, British voters saying they would vote to overturn Brexit is a remarkably fast turnaround.

The poll is a major defeat for those who proclaimed Brexit would be a big success, other Europeans would copy the UK and Britain outside the EU would flourish.

This has been the line of the prime ministers who followed David Cameron – Theresa May who promised she would “make Brexit work,” the disgraced liar Boris Johnson whose parliamentary career ended in ignominy, the fantastical Liz Truss and the current prime minister Rishi Sunak.

The latter is hoping for a more pragmatic relationship with Europe, but still has to tell lies to his party faithful via the BBC and the press that Brexit has opened a new positive era for Britain.

The emperor with no clothes

The country knows this but no one in politics, the media or economy is prepared to say the Brexit emperor now has no clothes.

So, what happens now? To be honest not much. All the current Conservative cabinet members were paid up supporters of Brexit. One of them – an absurd woman called Penny Mordaunt (who has been Leader of the House of Commons and Lord President of the Council since September 2022) – even told voters in 2016 that the EU was about to let Turkey and its 82 million citizens enter the EU and use Freedom of Movement provisions to come and live in Britain.

She still defends that gargantuan lie, but she and other cabinet members will not (and cannot) admit that a mistake was made.

Where is the Labour Party?

The Labour Party simply does not want the issue of Europe and Brexit raised on any doorstep until the election is over and hopefully Labour forms a government.

The new line of the English right, partly endorsed by the monolingual left commentariat in London, is that continental Europe is sliding into the hands of far-right or “neo-fascists” as the former Prime Minister Gordon Brown calls them.

Only Britain is now a truly liberal country and we should have nothing to do with a Europe of Orban, Meloni, Morawiecki and soon perhaps Marine Le Pen.

This English sense of superiority over the Franco or Mussolini or Pétain heritage continentals helps to shut down debate on how the UK might reconnect to or even rejoin Europe.

The Liberal Democrats (who were in coalition with David Cameron from 2010-2015 and who allowed Cameron to hold his referendum) also rule out “rejoin” as an election campaign slogan. Though the opinion poll and their own capture of a true blue Tory seat in a by-election last week may embolden them – as it will the Greens and Scottish nationalists (both strongly rejoin parties).

What about British business?

Business is beginning to moan a bit, but not going into full blooded criticism of Brexit. The economic leaders of Britain have put off demands for some policies of reconnecting with Europe until after the election.

When by the end of 2024 it is a Labour government that has to manage and be responsible for Brexit Britain, we will see daily attacks on Labour ministers for not doing anything to support British business now shut out of the EU economy.

The BBC, which put Nigel Farage on its flagship TV Question Time weekly political show more than any other political figure during the high-water period of Brexit, now just avoids mentioning the problem.

Recently, there was a 15-minute discussion on inflation on the BBC’s most important morning news show. Europe was not mentioned even if most of comparable economies to the UK have much lower inflation and employers all agree that losing access to the wider European labor market pool which competitors enjoys is pushing up prices.

Conclusion

In short, the UK poll means everything and nothing. It is historic that in such a short period of time the country has repudiated a decision, a policy and its promoters that UK citizens voted for just seven short years ago.

It took the United States 13 years to realise the 1920 decision to impose prohibition was a dumb mistake and vote to return to sanity.

In September, a major rejoin march will be held in London. Its problem is that the organizers and speakers are (like their opponents) still fighting the war of 2016.

The rejoin movement has yet to find powerful new voices and financial support, so for the time being nothing will change.

But soon Britain will have to start thinking seriously about reconnecting to Europe and putting right the misjudgement of Brexit. How that is done and who does it and what language is used will be of high importance.