Trump’s Two Grave Geostrategic Errors

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine and European policy is increasing the risk of a major war in Europe. For this reason, both Germany and other EU countries are increasing their defense spending at an even faster rate in order to reduce this risk of war by arming themselves as a deterrent.

One of Donald Trump’s reasons for turning his back on Ukraine and Europe is that the United States needs to focus on the conflict with China. In doing so, Donald Trump is making two strategic mistakes.

Strategic mistake number one

The first mistake is that Trump is following the idea of the so-called “realist” school of international relations, which believes that the United States must and can win Russia over to its side in the fight against China.

However, this idea is highly unrealistic. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 at the latest, there has been a new East-West conflict between China and Russia on the one side and the United States and Europe on the other.

China is partly openly and partly covertly Russia’s biggest supporter in the Ukraine war. Both see the West as a common enemy. The new East-West conflict is not only a conflict over hegemony, but also a strategic systemic conflict.

In order to understand the argument of the supposedly realist school of international relations that Russia can be detached from China’s side on the one hand, and to realize that this is highly unrealistic on the other, one has to realize Russia’s self-created dilemma in which it has found itself for years.

Russia: Striving for hegemony

Russia’s greatest economic and political obstacle to development is its imperial striving for hegemony in foreign policy and its obsessive control and domination of all areas of society, including the economy, in domestic policy.

Contrary to its own intentions, Russia has thus maneuvered itself into a geopolitical situation in which only China is available as an important cooperation partner.

In a partnership with China, however — as Erich Weede, a follower of the so-called realist school of international relations, rightly pointed out years ago — Russia is not a hegemonic power, but only a junior partner.

The idea that Russia can be separated from China is based on this context. Russia does not want to be China’s junior partner.

But does this make Russia a partner of the United States? Or is it not — contrary to the ideas of the realist school of international relations — more realistic in the true sense of the word that China and Russia will first try everything together to reorganize international relations and the global economy in their interests?

Deep unresolved structural problems

In addition, Russia’s domestic and economic policy of control and domination of all areas of society has meant that since the collapse of the Soviet Union and real socialism in 1991, Russia has still not solved its economic structural problems.

On the other hand, other states of the former Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic, have made considerable progress in a painful transformation process of creative destruction.

And domestic, foreign and economic policy belong together in Russia, because Russia has turned its own energy industry and the export of oil and gas into a central geopolitical weapon controlled centrally by the Kremlin.

This prevents both the free economic and competitive development of its own country and peaceful foreign economic cooperation with its neighbors.

The establishment of a Eurasian Economic Union on paper in 2014 is therefore an attempt by the Russian leadership to avoid the dilemma it has created for itself.

The geopolitical goal of a Eurasian Union that goes beyond the pursuit of purely economic interests is to secure Russia’s position as an equal hegemonic power alongside China and the United States in the long term.

The Ukraine war in context

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a desperate attempt to forge the Eurasian Union he has long sought with blood and violence. For without Ukraine as an important component of a Eurasian Union, Putin’s plans cannot be realized and remain in their infancy.

However, Donald Trump’s Ukraine and European policy now means that Putin could come closer to his geopolitical goals with U.S. help.

For Putin, the capitulation of Ukraine — in whatever form — is only the first step towards the occupation of the whole of Ukraine and a subsequent major war in Europe in order to expand the Eurasian Union and lend it more geopolitical weight.

China is unlikely to be interested in the expansion of a Eurasian Union. However, an expansion of the Eurasian Union to include Ukraine, the Baltic states and Poland is unlikely to be realized without a major war in Europe. Neither the former Soviet republics nor Central and Western Europe will surrender to Russia without a fight.

China playing the waiting game

At the moment, China therefore does not have to do anything about the still distant expansion of a Eurasian Union and can wait and see.

Moreover, China will certainly organize its relations with Russia in such a way that Russia does not side with the United States. The keyword BRICS+ is sufficient at this point.

So, what does the United States ultimately gain by turning away from Ukraine and striking a deal with Russia for the dispute between the United States and China?

A potential major war in Europe is likely to strengthen, not weaken, China’s geopolitical position. Donald Trump could therefore be doing the United States a disservice with his Ukraine and European policy.

Strategic mistake number two

Donald Trump’s second strategic mistake is that he thinks he can overcome the geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges posed by China and Russia alone, without allies and without the existing alliances. However, the economic figures speak against this.

China is not much smaller than the United States in terms of nominal GDP in U.S. dollars. If we look at China and Russia on the one hand and the United States together with the EU, the UK, Canada, Australia and Japan on the other, a different picture emerges.

Looking at the GDP of Western countries on the one hand and China and Russia on the other, there is a high probability that the West can successfully overcome the Chinese and Russian challenges.

To do this, it must represent its economic and political interests against China and Russia in a reasonably united manner and agree on a joint China and Russia strategy.

Dismantling the transatlantic alliance

However, Donald Trump is in the process of destroying or gradually dismantling transatlantic relations and Western alliances. He is turning Canada against him and turning away from Europe and towards Russia.

A common Western China strategy is further away than ever. This strengthens China’s geopolitical position, which also means that the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or a total blockade of Taiwan at sea and in the air becomes more probable.

All in all, this means that Donald Trump’s foreign and security policy with regard to Ukraine and Europe as well as China is increasing the risk of war worldwide. It is not only Ukraine and Europe that will suffer, but also the United States itself.

China and Russia have come closer to reorganizing international relations and the global economy at record speed as a result of Trump’s first weeks since his second inauguration on 20 January 2025.

What did the Kremlin say at the end of February? They see “complete agreement” with Donald Trump.