Erdogan Forever: Behind Turkey’s Latest Crackdown

Even though I consider myself a close follower of the news, I am struggling to keep track of who has been detained or arrested in Turkey over the past few months.

The regime appears to have entered one of its episodic crackdowns, targeting opposition figures en masse.

The pattern

This pattern first emerged in late 2009 and persisted for years through sham trials — Ergenekon and Sledgehammer — built on fabricated evidence and orchestrated by Fethullah Gülen’s network within the security forces and judiciary.

A second offensive followed the Gezi protests in 2013, a third after the botched coup in 2016, this time aimed at Gülenists (now labeled as the FETÖ terror organization).

Don’t let short pauses fool you

But do not mistake the periods between these offensives for times of democracy, where free speech and human rights were respected.

The opposition — particularly Kurdish politicians and journalists — has always borne the brunt of repression: Mayorships seized, prison sentences for something said on TV or posted online. At the very least, they lose their jobs.

Many of my friends and colleagues have endured this suffocating atmosphere for decades. And believe me, it is not something one ever truly gets used to. You think you do, but you do not. It is a constant trauma.

The “fourth wave”

Now, it seems we have entered a fourth wave. A flurry of arrests and detentions targeting opposition figures — though “opposition” is a loose category in Erdoğan’s Turkey. The targets could be members of opposition parties or simply people who said something the government did not like.

In the past weeks, repression has intensified. The CHP youth branch head was briefly detained over a social media post. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu — widely seen as Erdoğan’s strongest future challenger — now faces a judicial probe for criticizing the arrest.

Victory Party leader Ümit Özdağ was detained for allegedly insulting Erdoğan. Two CHP district mayors in Istanbul were arrested — one for supposed terrorism links, another for tender rigging — while a third mayor in the east was removed.

Meanwhile, six elected pro-Kurdish DEM Party mayors were dismissed over similar allegations and replaced by government-appointed trustees (kayyum).

A new absurd chapter

And now, an absurd new chapter: Ayşe Barım, a well-known talent manager representing top actors — including stars of Magnificent Suleiman — was arrested. Her alleged crime? Attempting to overthrow the government by sending actors to the Gezi protests.

Yes, it is as ludicrous as it sounds. The actors in question, whose photos from 12 years ago show them at the protests simply sitting, walking — doing ordinary human things —explained that they had joined Gezi of their own free will, straight from the Magnificent Suleiman set.

The prosecutor did not care. Barım was arrested. Two of the actors are now under investigation for perjury, including Halit Ergenç, who played Suleiman himself.

The initial investigation into Ayşe Barım and her agency began several weeks ago with accusations of monopolization in the film and TV industry. The charge? That she was “dominating” the sector with her roster of actors — which, in reality, just meant she was doing an exceptional job for her clients.

Not getting their cut

But the real issue wasn’t her success. It was that production companies close to the government were not getting their cut of the Turkish TV industry’s booming revenues.

And the numbers are not small. The Turkish TV sector generates over $500 million in exports to 150 countries — closer to 200 when factoring in digital platforms.

Turkish dramas have dedicated audiences not just in the Middle East and Latin America but also in the United States, Australia and across Europe.

The factors behind Erdogan’s latest offensive

Let’s try to make sense of this latest offensive by Erdoğan’s regime. Why so unhinged? Because, why not?

There are three factors are at play, all intertwined:

1. The threat of Ekrem İmamoğlu

In the March 2023 municipal elections, AKP lost nearly all major cities to the opposition CHP. İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s arch-nemesis, is the most likely presidential challenger in 2028 — or sooner.

Several legal cases against him are already in motion, designed to cripple his political career, if not imprison him. This wave of investigations preempts any major protests or resistance if and when İmamoğlu is disqualified from running.

2. The need to crush dissent ahead of constitutional changes

Erdoğan must amend the constitution to run for a third term. Any attempt to push through these changes, coupled with economic collapse — soaring poverty, a rising cost of living and discontent even among AKP’s base — could trigger protests.

The regime is making it clear: Dissent will be met with an iron fist.

3. A sense of impunity

Erdoğan’s inner circle believes they have emerged as the victors of the Syrian quagmire and that the current geopolitical climate allows him to act without consequence.

They target and arrest critics, opposition figures and public personalities. Because they can. Why? Well, why not?

Conclusion

We are witnessing the unhinged acts of an authoritarian regime teetering on the edge.